The most popular Shanghai Jiaotong shows low-level

2022-08-07
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Shanghai Jiao presents low volatility and may rebound in the short term.

one week Market Overview:

this week, Shanghai Jiao presents a low volatility trend. With the end of the market relocation, the forward contracts represented by the main contract 809 have initially shown signs of entering a bear market

due to the seasonal influence of climate on rubber tapping, the seasonal peak and trough of natural rubber production in rubber producing countries are very obvious in a year. During the year, March May is the low production month of the main natural rubber producing countries, while July September and December are the peak production and supply of the main natural rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia. Therefore, the bear market characteristics of futures contracts after September are generally obvious. With the arrival of the tapping season in Southeast Asia, the global supply pressure of natural rubber will gradually increase after May, which will test the demand

from the perspective of consumption, April and September are generally the annual consumption trough in the Japanese market, and may, June and July are often in the recovery period of consumption, which may be reflected in the trend of Japanese rubber after May, and will correspondingly offset some of the pressure from supply. As the global economy has slowed down significantly this year due to the impact of the US recession, the author believes that the seasonal rebound of Japanese consumption will be constrained by the slowdown of its economic growth and will be difficult to counter the upcoming supply pressure

in China, macro-control policies will also have an adverse impact on the consumption of natural rubber. According to historical statistics, domestic automobile sales will enter a slack season after May, which will affect domestic automobile production and may weaken the demand for tires. In addition, 30% of domestic tires are exported to Europe and the United States. The downturn in the U.S. economy this year will further increase the pressure on domestic tire exports. The consumption prospect of natural rubber in China is not very optimistic

at present, the supporting factors for Tianjiao mainly come from two aspects. First, due to weather and disease factors, the opening and cutting period of Tianjiao in Hainan and Yunnan, the main domestic production areas, has been delayed, which may lead to a reduction of nearly 30000 tons. Second, the rising price of crude oil indirectly supported the price of natural rubber

this week, with the rise of the total position level of Shanghai Jiao, the ratio of the total position to the stock of the exchange has risen sharply, which provides the possibility to strengthen the information sharing among departments and the rebound of Shanghai Jiao. As April and may are in the period of insufficient supply of natural rubber, the possibility of short-term technical rebound cannot be ruled out, and the rebound space will depend on the change of market positions

technically, the HJ 809 contract has been supported on the front line of 20300, and may rebound in the short term. The upward resistance is in the range of 21000-21200, and the medium-term decline has not changed

in terms of operation, look for short selling opportunities above 21000 yuan

relevant market trends of natural rubber:

1 Major futures markets in the world (-)

varieties

opening

highest

lowest

closing

rise and fall

position change

Shanghai Jiao 809 contract

20750

21095

20400

20760

+55

+25494

rijiao 809 contract

296.5

297.5

284.1

294.5

+1.5

-1679

new (RSS3) 806

284.25

284.25

281

282.75

-2.75

-60

Thai (RSS3) 811

89.4

89.45

87.45

87.9

-1.05

+69

Japanese glue units: yen/kg

Hu Jiao unit: RMB yuan/ton

Singapore No. 3 cigarette glue unit: cents/kg

Thailand No.3 cigarette glue unit: Thai baht/kg

2. Spot pending price of China Rubber No. 5 standard glue

time

average price

pending quantity

spot premium

<22569

395

+299

22556

430

+306

p>22483

550

+208

/p>

22522

470

+22

3 Spot price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone ()

variety

origin

market price

price unit

price terms

rss3

Thailand

USD/ton

bonded area warehouse picking up

str20

Thailand

USD/ton

bonded area warehouse picking up

sir20

Indonesia

USD/ton

bonded area warehouse picking up

smr20

Malaysia

USD/ton

bonded Picking up goods in the warehouse

note: the RSS3 quotation is USD 2710/ton, The general trade cost is 25867 yuan/ton (2600 selective tariff, RMB exchange rate

6.9938, freight of 30 dollars/ton, port miscellaneous charges of 200 yuan/ton.

20 standard glue is quoted at 2710 dollars/ton, and the cost of composite glue is 23785 yuan/ton.

4. The latest price quotation of natural rubber outer disk (April 25)

variety

origin

market price

price unit

price terms

shipment date

rss3

Thailand

USD/ton

cif Chinese port

may

smr20

Malaysia

USD/ton

cif China port

may

str20

Thailand

USD/ton

cif China port

may

sir20

Indonesia

USD/ton

cif Chinese port

may

svr10

Vietnam

no quotation for the time being

USD/ton

cif Chinese port

2. Deeply understand the new situation faced by the plastic processing industry

may

5 Malaysia spot market (SMR 5: Malaysia Standard No. 5 glue)

date

smr cv

smr l

smr 5

smr gp

smr 10

smr 20

306.95

301.95

273.85

272.90

270.65

270.00

308.35

303.50

274.30

273.35

271.05

270.40

308.95

304.75

275.35

274.40

272.15

271.50

/p>

309.00

304.50

275.70 to reach Ideal fitting accuracy

274.70

272.45

271.80

309.80

304.20

275.90

274.90

272.65

272.05

6 The latest centralized ordering market of Qingdao International Rubber Market (April 25)

varieties

ordering quantity

the market opens today

the highest

the lowest

the latest

trading volume

ups and downs

rss0805

646

2433

2433

2430

2430 33

652

71

rss0806

14600

2680

2711

2636

2698

6428

66

7 Latest official afternoon FOB quotation in Thailand (April 25) Unit: baht/kg

type/grade

f.o.b quotation

may 2008

june 2008

Bangkok

songka

Bangkok

songka

cigarette adhesive

rss 1

90.95

90.70

91.15

90.90

rss 2

90.35

90.10

90.55

90.30

rss 3

89.80

89.55

90.00

89.75

rss 4

89.50

89.25

89.70

89.45

rss 5

89.05

88.80

89.25

89.00

Thai Standard adhesive

str 5l

89.05

88.80

89.25

89.00

str 5

<87.15, but the accuracy may be very poor; Although

86.90

87.35

87.10

str 10

86.45

86.20

86.65

86.40

str 20

86.05

85.80

86.25

86.00

concentrated latex

58.05

57.80

58.25

58.00

weekly latest data

1 The latest weekly inventory report of natural rubber of Shanghai Futures Exchange (April 25)

trend chart of the latest weekly inventory report of natural rubber of Shanghai Futures Exchange. (source: CSC futures)

2. Position of Tokyo rubber Fund (as of)

position trend chart of Tokyo rubber fund. (source: CSC futures)

3. Price comparison between Shanghai Jiao and Japan jiao (as of april25,2008)

trend chart of price comparison between Shanghai Jiao and Japan Jiao. (source: CSC futures)

note: the source of this reprint is indicated. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its contents

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